OK, what else are you thinking about today?!Anyway, this is a prediction, not a result.Of all the polls out there, I’m sticking with my favorite research operation, the Pew Research Center.Their last poll of the campaign calls it 52% – 46% in Obama’s favor. According to Pew’s data, if you are female, under-50, urban and college-educated, you’re an Obama voter.But here’s the stat that really caught my eye …“Obama holds a wide lead over John McCain among those who say they have already voted (32% of all likely voters) or say they plan to vote before Election Day (7%). However, it is not quite as large as it was a week ago. More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.”WOW … one point difference for Tuesday voters! Just goes to show that McCain is indeed a survivor. I’d love to see him compete on that show!But most interesting of all is the intensity of voter contact in this campaign. Consider this table:


Surprisingly to me, only 28% of registered voters say they have received an email communication from one of the presidential campaigns. Not bad, actually, if that refers to messages directly from the campaigns; but seems low if it means any kind of candidate-promoting email, given the extent of viral messaging that’s gone on, especially on the Obama side.Speaking of polls …Have you taken our Vital Signs survey? We’re polling Agitator readers on your fundraising expectations for the balance of 2008. We’re publishing the results on Friday the 7th. If you want to be included, take the survey by COB Wednesday. Just eight questions.Tom

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