We released the results of the second of The Agitator’s Vital Signs Survey yesterday and sure enough the predictions were far gloomier than those of two weeks ago. 62% of the responding non-profits expect the last quarter of ’08 to be down by 10% or more compared with results a year ago. Only 19% of non-profits expect ’08 returns to be down less than 10%. All in all, this week 81% of the respondents expected a poorer year-end, whereas a few weeks ago the number stood at 58%.

Monday: DonorTrends Whitepaper #2: The Giving ProcessThe Agitator released the second in its new series of DonorTrends White Papers. These papers are available exclusively to subscribers to The Agitator’s new Premium service.The second paper is titled Giving Across Generations: The Giving Process. It explores the charitable giving attitudes and behavior of three segments of US donors – the Seniors, Boomers and Newbies.

Tuesday: You’re Not Alone!As reported here by the Washington Post, Obama plans to augment the traditional weekly national radio message from the President with a video-version distributed via YouTube. Other interactive online tactics are planned as well, drawing from communications experience gained during the campaign. Whether all this produces authentic participation, or just more sophisticated message management, time will tell.The first message from President–elect Obama was delivered a week ago and can be found on YouTube. As one of our readers contributes, “So far plain-vanilla (a talking head). It’ll be interesting to see if/how he really uses the medium to further understanding of the message.”

Wednesday: Motrin: A Lesson In Issue CampaigningThe recent controversy over a Motrin ad provides a great case study for issue advocacy of the future.

Thursday: The Video-Centric NonprofitAs Dave Dutch explains in his MediaPost article, “…Web video’s real potential is not in watching "Lost" or "The Office" online or even downloading those shows to your cell phone or iPod. It’s about giving consumers what they want in the most engaging medium available.” In the midst of a depressing economy — to retain and energize your best donors, harnessing the power of online video is an affordable and compelling way to put the CEO and other top program folks in front of the donorbase to re-affirm mission.

Friday: Fundraising Vital Signs – Response UpdateThe Agitator has now completed two cycles of our Fundraising Vital Signs surveys, in which we ask readers of The Agitator to share their prognostications regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of 2008. Both Vital Signs Surveys and Key findings are a must read.

Your Weekend Bonus: Seldom have I seen as much discussion in our trade than is now taking place around the potential effects of the global recession on fundraising. Over the past several weeks I’ve recommended several pieces for your weekend review.This weekend’s ‘must read’ entry is the work of Tony Elischer of THINK Consulting Solutions in the U.K. Bottom line according to Tony, “Most of all we will need to change our behaviours and those of our organizations to stand the best chance of surviving and perhaps even thriving during this recession.”You can download Tony’s thought piece titled “Recession: Watching is Not an Option” by clicking here.

In addition to advice along the lines as that offered by others Tony makes a couple of points worth additional note:

• Recessions educate donors to act differently. Expect donors to be more demanding of the service their chosen charities give them. More donors will shop around before choosing non-profits “meeting my life choices/values.”

• Corporate fundraising is possibly the first are to decline. Obviously the impact of less consumer spending will have companies mainly focusing on the bottom line and survival. HOWEVER…some companies may find your brand helpful in meeting their corporate objectives in these troubled times.

• Foundation giving is likely to be little affected in the near-term. Foundations will focus on delivering on their current commitments and so little immediate effect. However, according to Tony, they’ll become more ‘hardened’ towards new approaches.• Individual giving will go through a ‘slow burn’ as the impact of the recession hits different aspects of people’s lives. Tony notes that each year has been getting more and more difficult over the last 3 years and the recession will accelerate fundraising difficulties. Of course charities can’t give up on either fundraising or recruitment but are going to have to work harder and smarter. Tony would spend his money in figuring out the “next significant surge in digital recruitment”.

• Events in hardest hit markets are already feeling the impact. Wealthy folks will not be willing to pay premium prices required for high-end events. Not only because of a squeeze on resources, but they won’t want to be seen ‘showing off’ when others are struggling.Tony’s favorite (favourite, sorry) mantra in these times: “Focus on donor share, not market share.”

Have a good weekend,Roger

P.S. In case it’s cold and rainy and you really want to be a star, look through your bookshelf and take out (or go online and order) Ken Burnett’s “Relationship Fundraising: A Donor-Based Approach to the Business of Raising Money, 2nd Edition and an E-Book.Given what we’re all up against, this book, filled with great case histories and more than 200 action points, should be in your quiver.

The dismal drone of economic downturn continued unabated as stock markets dipped, retailers forecast a bleak holiday season, Ad Age reported that online consumer spending is also slowing, and representatives of the G-20 convened an emergency economic summit in Washington, D.C. that will run through the weekend.

Here at the Agitator we released our latest white paper, “Giving Across Generations” as part of the launch of our new Premium Service, and are now at work on our first telebriefing –“Fundraising in Tough Times” – which will be held next Friday afternoon and is available free of charge to all Agitator readers on a first-come-first-“seated” basis.

Week of November 10

Monday: New Agitator Paper: Giving Across Generations

On Monday The Agitator released the first in its new series of DonorTrends White Papers. These papers are available only to subscribers to The Agitator’s new Premium service.Among the findings:

• Strongest growth in giving since 2006 has occurred among Newbies;
• Boomers are the enigma, declining in both percent giving and average gifts (we offer a theory as to why this might be occurring);
• The “hot” giving category across all generations is animal protection and welfare;
• The top areas for advocacy giving going forward appear to be family values, environmental protection, advocacy for the needy, and human rights.
• The most significant future challenges to America perceived by donors are falling educational achievement, coping with global economic competition, and the inability of the political system to deal with major urgent issues.

Learn more about our Premium service to access the full analysis along with actionable recommendations.

Tuesday: Conscious Consumption – All About Value

Two exceptional articles from the LA Times and NY Times explore how commercial advertisers are responding to the challenging task of selling during a severe economic downturn.

As they see it, given today’s consumer psychology, every offer must emphasize — in a word — value.Both of these articles underscore two big challenges for nonprofit marketers.And as Tom warns, “Effective fundraising appeals are still there waiting to be crafted … but “crafted” is the operative word. In these times, slapping together “same old, same old” messages won’t get the job done.”

Wednesday: NY Times on Giving 

The latest NY Times special section on giving is, as usual, a “must-read” comprehensive review of the state of the philanthropic and charity universe.Whatever your field of interest there’s something in this superb compendium of articles for you. Oddly the one area not covered is the behavior in these troubled times of the small gift donor.For a good overview on the current climate, read Stephanie Strom’s article on the impact of the economic downturn on giving. Her report, prepared with assistance from James Freed, gives a surprisingly upbeat picture, given the circumstances.

Thursday: Online Spending Growth Slows

An AdAge article reports consumer spending online is slowing this year-end, reflecting the overall economic downturn.Perhaps there are warning signs here for online fundraising.Analyzing the figures, Tom offers positive perspective “one might infer that 55% of consumers will spend the same (or even more) online this year! … Might this mean that nonprofits will see online giving hold more firm than direct mail as the year closes out?

Friday: Tell Us Your Vital Signs – 2

Two weeks ago, The Agitator began to take the pulse of nonprofit fundraisers regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of the year, via our Vital Signs Survey 1. We reported the responses to Survey 1 here.

Please take this Vital Signs Survey 2 by November 19^th. Results will be reported on Friday, November 21^st both in the daily post and through a special Editor TeleBrief on Friday at 2:00pm EST.Free Registration for the TeleBrief will be open on Monday – be on the lookout the announcement and email on how to join us for this briefing. 

Your Weekend Bonus:   While the excitement and optimism surrounding Barack Obama’s historic ascension remains palpable, it’s impossible to deny the daunting challenges ahead due to the current economic downturn. Some economists posit that we are in for a rapid uptick in the economy before the end of 2009.

At the other end of the spectrum are those who anticipate a global recession/depression extending for a number of years.  Uncertainty remains the watchword, making a white paper authored by Mal Warwick and Dan Doyle of Mal Warwick Associates a must read.   Click here to view the full piece, titled, “Fundraising in Tough Times: A No-Nonsense Guide to Surviving in a Challenging Economy.”

Their report takes a longer term view of the current crisis; focusing on three scenarios for economic recovery, the strategic attitude that philanthropic organizations should choose to adopt for long term success (and the pitfalls of not picking the prudent path), and how this strategic tack should be applied in practical steps.  

Dan and Mal argue that whether the recovery comes quickly, or a lengthy recession ensues, the only wise choice for your organization is to take the “selective approach”.  The case is a compelling one, and further, they provide nine practical steps that you should be considering right now.  

I almost always agree with these guys, including their recommendation to move swiftly to implement almost all of the steps put forth in their white paper. But, frankly I’d think before moving on the fifth recommendation suggesting that testing and innovation be reduced rather than increased.  

I believe that in times like these testing and innovation are more important than ever.   In fact, no matter what the economic conditions, if you aren’t aggressively developing and testing a pipeline of new messages and methods, your long term success is sure to suffer.

Thanks to Dan and Mal for their thoughtful advice.

Have a great weekend.

Roger

This week brought an end to the seemingly never-ending presidential campaigns marked by highs and lows, necessary and unnecessary divisions, indelible characters and high drama.   But in the end, grassroots engagement, and fundraising ‘firsts’ made possible by the brilliant use of technology-backed-by-philosophy combined to yield a record-shattering turnout that contributed mightily to Obama’s decisive victory.

Tom and I, who cut our organizing, fundraising and communications teeth in an era of racism, political cronyism and just-emerging power to the people, couldn’t resist the opportunity for some nostalgia.  More than most of our readers should have been subjected to.  But, that’s who we are.

Beyond the history making election, the specter of a falling economy and the inherent darkness that all this portends looms large.  But clearly one fundraiser’s darkness is another’s minor disturbance as we saw from the results of our first Vital Signs Survey released on Friday.

And so, we end the week more filled with hope than we’ve been in some months.

WEEK OF NOVEMBER 3, 2008

MONDAY:  Obama: Technology Meets Psychology.  We’ve read tons about the Obama campaign’s adroit use of the internet to marshal money and people power.  But as this excellent article in Wired points out, the real magic in Obama’s approach has been to integrate state-of-the-art use of technology with super-sophisticated organizational approaches.

Says Wired:

“Previous political campaigns have tapped the internet in innovative ways — Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential run, and Ron Paul’s bid for this year’s Republican nomination, to name two. But Obama is the first to successfully integrate technology with a revamped model of political organization that stresses volunteer participation and feedback on a massive scale, erecting a vast, intricate machine set to fuel an unprecedented get-out-the-vote drive in the final days before Tuesday’s election.”

Whatever you think of Obama’s politics, his campaign set the new gold standard for mobilizing people to volunteer and give. Plenty of lessons for cause groups to absorb.

TUESDAY:  Obama Wins!  This Election Day post was a prediction, not a result.

Of all the polls out there, Tom was sticking with his favorite research operation, the Pew Research Center.

Pew’s last poll of the campaign called it 52% – 46% in Obama’s favor. According to Pew’s data, if you are female, under-50, urban and college-educated, you’re an Obama voter.

Most interesting of all is the intensity of voter contact in this campaign.

WEDNESDAY:  The Morning After.  On Election Day  morning as I stood in the autumn sunshine of our little New England town of Chilmark, Massachusetts waiting to vote I couldn’t help but marvel at how far we as a nation have come on fundamental issues like race and how long it’s taken us to get here. 

It’s now been 40 years since the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., the fiery protests of the Vietnam War era, the rise of the women’s rights movement and many other social change movements. Four decades since the “realigning election” of 1968 which saw the primary election candidacies of Eugene McCarthy, Robert Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson’s decision not to seek re-election, and a general election where Republican Richard Nixon defeated Democrat Hubert Humphrey marking the ascendancy of the GOP.

What connects the bitterly contested Election of 2008 with the tumultuous 1968 Election is that both took place in a climate of massive national angst. In America, when times are terribly troubling there’s one constant — the likelihood that massive citizen action will arise and effect change.

And so it did this year.   And once again technology played a significant role. Not in the form of Tom Paine’s pamphleteering, or the street theater and massive protests of ’68.  Rather, this time the use of the online technologies and techniques, in the words of Adam Nagourney of The New York Times, “… has rewritten the rules on how to reach voters, raise money, organize supporters, manage the news media, track and mold public opinion, and wage–and withstand –political attacks, including many carried by blogs that did not exist four years ago.”

But technology alone is not some magic bullet for funding and building political and social change movements. The whole “dot.com” era taught us all that you can’t depend on technologists to get results from technology. As events in 2008 prove, technology gets results only when placed in the hands of people who understand the principles of citizen action, communication and fundraising.

THURSDAY:  What a Difference Four Decades Make.   Obama’s historic victory got Tom reminiscing about his own formative political experience, which happens to date to 1968, when the Vietnam war and racial tensions were the driving, divisive factors in the presidential election.
Tom recalls… “In that year, Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King were assassinated; I watched the city of Washington burning, with Army tanks on the streets, from the roof of my university dorm; the success of anti-war candidate Gene McCarthy in the New Hampshire Democratic primary triggered the decision of President Lyndon Johnson not to seek re-election; and Chicago police brutally attacked anti-war protesters outside the Democratic Party Convention before a live nation-wide television audience.

“That convention nominated LBJ’s Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, as its presidential candidate. Humphrey was the “happy warrior” — a social democrat to his core — who had achieved political fame in 1948, two decades earlier, when he delivered an impassioned speech at that year’s Democratic Convention. “The time has arrived in America for the Democratic Party to get out of the shadow of states’ rights and walk forthrightly into the bright sunshine of human rights,” he pleaded, winning support for an unprecedented pro-civil-rights plank in the Party’s platform.

“Humphrey lost the 1968 election by 511,944 votes (out of 73 million cast) to Richard Nixon, largely for two reasons. His pro-civil rights history still infuriated racists in the South, whose most notorious champion, Governor George Wallace of Alabama, ran as an independent candidate for president and captured about 10 million votes. And Humphrey’s too-late decision to disassociate himself from LBJ’s Vietnam war meant that he never captured the passion and support of young voters in America, who were numbed by the deaths of Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King.

“Fast forward 40 years.

“Not since Jimmy Carter has a Democrat been elected US President with a majority of the popular vote. Bill Clinton failed to achieve this in his two successful campaigns. Whatever your politics, aren’t clear-cut majorities nice?!

“More importantly, according to exit polls on Tuesday, Barack Obama won significant support from white voters, most especially those under 30 years of age.

“Obama lost the white vote in every age group over 30, and especially men. But 57% of white Americans under 30 gave their vote to him.

“And, again according to exit polls, amongst all voters under age 30 (18% of the US electorate), Obama received 66%-69% of the vote, as well as 69% of the votes of first-time voters. This latter group propelled voter turnout (131 million voters) to probably the highest percentage — around 64%, according to first counts — since 1908.

“So, to me, the contrasts that are most striking about these four-decade political bookends are …

“First, that race has effectively — not entirely — disappeared as a factor in American presidential politics, and — thankfully for the future — it clearly is a non-issue amongst younger voters.

“Second, whereas in 1968 young voters were disenfranchised and disillusioned by the time the election occurred, in 2008 they have been the powerhouse of the Obama campaign. They constituted the largest segment of the volunteer field army that worked — 1.5 million volunteers in the battleground states alone — to turn out the vote on election day for Obama.

“And, I might add for The Agitator’s online-friendly audience, this was a young army totally immersed in and empowered by sophisticated use of internet technology to advance their candidate and cause. Even had youth been energized in 1968, they would not have had the tools to achieve what the tech-savvy under-30s accomplished in 2008 for Barack Obama.

“A few days before he was killed, Martin Luther King said these words (here is the audio):

“If we will stand and work together, we will bring into being that day when justice will roll down like waters and righteousness like a mighty stream … we will bring into being that day when America will no longer be two nations, but it will be one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.”

“What a difference four decades make!”

FRIDAY:  Fundraising Vital Signs 1 –Responses.   

With our “Vital Signs – 1” survey, we asked readers share their prognostications regarding the fundraising outlook for the balance of 2008.

We received 126 completed surveys, and 55 individual fundraisers offered to join a panel to report further assessments as the year plays out. Three-of-four respondents work in a nonprofit organization; the other respondents work for a fundraising agency or as independent fundraising consultants. Our respondents are nicely representative of the full range of nonprofits, from advocacy groups, social/human services and arts & culture, to medical/health, education and humanitarian assistance. Thank you one and all.

Click here for an overview of the findings and responses.

And click here to view the full results, bearing in mind that these responses are directional only.

Over the next two weeks we will again ask our Panelists to update and again share their insights. 

We’ll be reporting on Vital Signs  II in the November 21st edition of the Agitator.

Your Weekend Bonus:   With Tom and me choked up with a combination of joy and nostalgia over the Obama victory and at the same time compiling the results of the first Vital Signs Survey leave it to Seth Godin to make some useful  and, yes, brilliant marketing insights the 2008 presidential campaigns try this piece .

Key observations from Seth Godin:

Stories really matter.  Most marketers are obsessed with ‘features’, but in reality it’s the ‘story people really respond to. And that is the case in the 2008 Campaign.

Permission matters.  The Obama campaign turned down the spam and turned up the permission and used personal and relevant messages which always outperform spam.

Marketing is tribal.  Karl Rove’s cultivation of “the base” is shorthand of a tribe of people with shared interests and vision.  John McCain didn’t particularly like that base nor did they like him, but chose Sarah Palin to appeal to it and also hoped to pick up Hillary Clinton’s tribe as well.    Obama built his own, new tribe.  And when the attack ads on Obama came his tribe identified with him.  Attacking him was like attacking them resulting in more donations and bigger turnout.

According to Seth the lesson that we all should take away about all marketing is a simple one. “When you buy a product, you’re also buying the marketing.  Buy something from a phone telemarketer, you get more phone telemarketers, guaranteed.  Buy a gas guzzler and they’ll build more. Marketers are simple people…they make what sells.  Our culture has purchased (and voted) itself into the place we are today.”

To all the Agitator tribe, have a good weekend.

Roger

So, in an effort to provide some insight Tom and I decided to seek the experience and prognostications you and other Agitator readers by publishing a Vital Signs Survey so we can all share each others’ insights on what is happening now and what is likely to happen as we head to the end of 2008.

Please join in. Take a few moments to let us know what you’re seeing and how what you think the current climate means to 2008 results. We’ll share those results next Friday. And then every two weeks we’ll update the survey until year’s end.

WEEK OF OCTOBER 27, 2008

MONDAY: Good news on the level of expected online giving for the holiday season. A “must read” report from Convio and Jupiter Research on the holiday giving intentions of 175.6 million online users in the U.S. offers reassuring news in these troubled times:

• 51% say they intend to give online to charities;
• 24% say they will give $100 or more;
• Even of those who say their financial situation is worse than last year, 46% say they plan to donate; and…
• 61% say they will give about the same as last year, 6% say more, 33% say less.

Get the full report here from Convio. Don’t delay.

TUESDAY: Another tonic for troubled times. And an Agitator “You Deserve A Raise” for its author, Sasha Dichter, Director of Business Development for the Acumen Fund, a non-profit venture capital fund supporting enterprises fighting poverty in the developing world. This fundraising manifesto, titled “In Defense of Raising Money” was brought to our attention by marketing maven Seth Godin.

Please read the whole piece which concludes: “If nothing else, then we need a new word. Fundraising is about a transaction — I reaise funds from you, you get nothing in return. “I’d rather be an eveangelist, a storyteller, an educator, a translator, a table-pounder, a guy on his soapbox, a woman with a megaphone, a candidate for change. I want to talk to as many people as I can about my ideas–whether in person or in newsletters or on Facebook or Twitter or in the Economist or at the TED conference or at Davos –and capture their imagination about the change I hope to see in the world. “Don’t you?”

WEDNESDAY: Tom led us on a much-needed mid-week break from the woes of fundraising in a recession and the endless achievements of Obama’s online fundraising machine to the world of neuromaketing. Buyology: Truth and Lies About Why We Buy by Martin Lindstrom is the report of a three year, $7 million research project into what really goes on in the brains of consumers as they watch commercials and think about brands.

Buyology discusses findings like……is the brain actually stimulated by cigarette warning labels? [Tom ponders about the effect of global warming warnings.]…do brains really perceive brands the way they perceive religions? [Tom wonders: "What's the chemistry of zealotry?"]…can you ‘watch’ the brain to predict which TV programs will succeed? [Tom asks, "How about which fundraising appeals will succeed?"]To learn more about what the brain MRIs and EEGs revealed and whether this fascinating book is for you click on the review here.

THURSDAY: Biggest surprise from an excellent white paper on marketing channel preferences is the continuing preference among younger consumers (age 18-34) for direct mail and email when it comes to receiving marketing messages.

The study from Ball State University’s Center for Media Design and email marketing company ExactTarget contains some fascinating findings:

* 20 percent of wired consumers have signed up for marketing offers via SMS, but they want to receive text messages only for urgent customer service issues such as financial alerts or travel updaes;

*more than 50% of young homemakers use social networks and SMS during the day, but direct mail and e-mail are their two preferred marketing channels;

* 81 % of retired consumers have purchased online (no reason they shouldn’t be contributing online too.)

* in the ‘established professionals’ group of six target groups studied, women are more likely to use new channels like Instant Messaging, SMS and social networking to communicate with friends and family. But when it comes to shopping online 92% of both men and women in this group have made online purchases.

Read more from the article in eMarketing & Commerce and from there download the white paper.

FRIDAY: We ended the week at the Agitator by launching a brief eight-question Vital Signs Survey to collect perceptions and predictions of our readers on their outlook non-profit fundraising over the balance of 2008.

Please take the Vital Signs Surveyby November 5th. We plan to report the results on Friday, November 7th. After that we will publish fresh survey results every two weeks for the balance of the year, as reported by those of you who choose to share your impressions though our Vital Signs Panel.

Your Weekend Bonus: “The partnership between nonprofit organizations and their donors is never more important thatn during times of uncertainty.” Those were the words of wisdom that greeted me in a Friday morning email from my friend and major gift guru John Glier of Grenzebach Glier and Associates.Tom and I’ve been covering a lot of ground over the financial/economic cries, but mostly as it’s likely to affect smaller gifts.

So, it was good to receive a take and some sound advice on the current situation from one of the premiere major gifts experts. “…we are convinced that the best course for the non-profit sector is to fucus on the activities that have always served it well: ensuring a compelling case for support, leading in ways that generate trust in institutional leadership, building and sustaining relationship, inviting philanthropic support, and stewarding the donors who have made gifts in the past.”

John then goes on to offer the following reminders:

* Well-managed fundraising programs prevail among and across many different economic and political landscapes. Strong institutions are maintaining their philanthropic activities, albeit with sensitivity and a recognition that some donors will defer a gift decision or delay a pledge payment.

*Annual giving programs should take care to monitor gifts from loyal donors and be certain that those donors are asked to continue their support. Annual fund officers should look carefully at previous donors who have made leadership gifts of stock from donor-advised funds, and should consider direct conversations with those donors about how they will make their gifts this year.

*It is critical to know your donors and be sensitive to their personal timing. Stay close to those who have supported you in the past and increase your stewardship activities. Some donors will continue to give, and most will re-engage when they are feeling more comfortable. It is particularly important at this time to assure donors that their past support continues to have impact and is appreciated.

Amen! I say.  And have a great weekend.

Roger

But by Wednesday we too were fed up with all the nail biting around bad financial news so we turned our attention to presidential politics and online video both as a diversion but also because the video channel, in our opinion, represents a significant trend that shouldn’t be ignored by non-profit communicators and fundraisers. 

By week’s end the nail biting won out so we wrapped up on Friday with a practical bit of ‘best practices’ for getting the most out of your e-appeals. 

WEEK OF OCTOBER 20, 2008 

MONDAY:  Roger and Tom Discuss Chicken Little.  Over the course of last weekend Tom and I had a conversation about the economic situation and its impact on fundraising strategy in the coming months. We audio-taped it with the thought you might find our out-loud thinking about the challenge helpful.If you listen, you’ll hear Tom as self-confessed Chicken Little and me as the sage voice of calm and reason!It’s about 20 minutes long … just turn on your volume and click the URL or button below.Please let us know if you find this kind of audio post useful… and how we might improve it. We look forward to your candid feedback.

www.theagitator.net/wp-content/uploads/file/Agitator-Talk.mp3

TUESDAY:  Fundraising in Tough Times for Acme Food Bank.   A key take-away from the conversation Tom and I posted on Monday was … don’t stop asking!  Followed by … “words matter!”  We said that a sick economy heightens the need for certain nonprofits and charities and their programs … and donors will recognize that reality.

Here’s a post (I wouldn’t necessarily agree with its title!) by Steve Cebalt at the Nonprofit PR Forum that illustrates these points very nicely. Specifically, consider his two contrasting examples of how a fundraising appeal for “Acme Food Bank” might be presented:

Example 1: “The ACME Food Bank needs immediate help from the community. We have lines around the block at out food bank and not enough food to meet the need. If the community doesn’t step up, we’re in trouble.”Steve calls this approach “desperate” and says it might result in “some short-term support to get you through the week, but it will do little to position the food bank for sustained growth over the long term.”

Example 2: “The ACME Food Bank is proud to be one of the bright spots in our economic system. The worse the economy gets, the more relevant we become to this community. If we were a business, we’d say demand is great right now – demand for our food distribution has never been higher, thanks to the obvious problems with our economy. If you are looking for a way to make a difference for your less fortunate friends and neighbors during this economic slump, consider volunteering or investing whatever you can in our Community Food Fund. Thanks to in-kind donations and volunteer support, The Community Food Fun provides $9 of food to the hungry for every dollar you donate. Where else can you get that kind of return on your investment these days?”Clearly #2 is the way to go.  So keep asking. And think about your words.

WEDNESDAY:  YouTube Wins 2008 Election!  So declare Andrew Rasiej and Micah Sifry (founders of the influential TechPresident) in this article on Politico. 

First,  some context:“In the 60 years that the top three TV networks have been broadcasting, they have produced about 1.5 million hours of content — assuming, for argument’s sake, that they have been broadcasting 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. That’s the equivalent of about six months’ worth of YouTube uploads.”

Then, a miscellany of stats like these:

• Between them, online videos from Obama and Mccain campaigns have been viewed 100,000,000 times.
• One in ten online users have posted or forwarded someone else’s political video — how’s that for viral?!
• 35% of online users have watched an online video related to the campaign. YouTube has made its mark.   Goodnight  Dan Rather, wherever you are!

THURSDAY:  MoveOn’s Brilliant Use of Online Video.  If you are the only voter in America who hasn’t yet seen this online video message from MoveOn, then you owe The Agitator big-time for bringing it to your attention.We’re sure  you will pass this “make sure you vote” video along … and probably edit it yourself before doing so.  MoveOn has presumably sent this video to each of its 4 million plus members … with each and every one of them customized to the recipient.Weekend Readers:  Do your civic duty.  Take a moment and pass it along to friends and family. MoveOn, you deserve a raise!FRIDAY:  Email Fundraising Tips.    Here is a useful article via Marketing Sherpa regarding best practices for email fundraising. It’s focused more on the copywriting aspects of email appeals.One thing this checklist drives home is the importance of testing email subject lines. These “headlines” are crucially important … sitting atop identical body copy, they can spell the difference between lousy or average response and blockbuster returns. Remember, if they don’t open the envelope … !If you have a large e-file to work with, and if you’re not routinely testing email subject lines, you oughta be fired! Your Weekend Bonus:  On Tuesday and again on Thursday the 40 million member AARP sent out a terrific  personalized video to millions of it’s members.Take a look  at this cutting edge piece where personalization is central to the message, and not just a nice add on.  ”AARP’s mission is to make sure people stay engaged in the election process,” says sokesperson Andfrew Nannis.  ”We’re getting to the end and people are getting fatigued.  This was a fun way for us to make sure people stay engaged.”The campaign is the work of online advocacy campaign firm  M+R Strategic Services  and my favorite online creatives Free Range Studios.Why don’t you make a weekend run for the White House yourself.  You can create your own video by clicking here.  Have a great weekend on your way to the White House! Roger 

Meanwhile, the last of the presidential debates took place on Wednesday as the campaigns headed into the homestretch to Novemember 4th with partisans on both sides noting that the sky would surely fall if the other guy were elected. If ever there was a week where some perspective, both short and long term, was needed this was it.

So we turned our backs on Chicken Little and reported on two recent surveys that indicate consumers don’t believe the sky is falling … that there are lessons in this political year that may benefit cause and advocacy fundraisers down the line … and that in the long-term all this bad financial news may make little difference to philanthropy in the long-term.

WEEK OF OCTOBER 13, 2008

MONDAY: Does Generation Jones Know You. Generation Jones is the demographically "lost" generation nestled between the bulk of Boomers and Gen Xers. The pundits say the Jonesers will be shaping political fashions for a long time to come. If true, that means their attitudes will also frame the issues and debates that animate the cause advocacy world.

So nonprofit communicators and fundraisers beware … are you keeping up with the Joneses?

Here is a website devoted to Gen Jones. It features a great video compilation of various political pundits and columnists expounding on how Gen Jones represents the swing segment in this year’s presidential election. Barack Obama and Sarah Palin are both Gen Jonesers.

TUESDAY: Biggest Online Fundraising Night in History. Tom predicts that October 29th should be the biggest online fundraising night in history … at least in political history.

As reported here, Barack Obama has bought thirty-minute program blocks at 8pm that night on CBS and NBC, and is in negotiations with ABC and Fox to make it a true "roadblock."Although fundraising won’t be highest priority of this broadcast Tom speculates there will be some kind of call-to-action featuring Obama’s web address and that online donation capture is what will make a record volume possible.

In the "old days" of 1-800# capture of pledges and credit card gifts, there was a physical limitation on how many calls could be captured in a short interval, in response to an over-the-air TV appeal. There just weren’t enough phone lines going into enough call centers.

Agitator reader Nancy Schwartz of GettingAttention.org wonders whether the Obama core supporters are network tv watchers, but acknowledges that this will be an event all non-profits should study.

WEDNESDAY: In Fundraising, Words Count. Fearing that our weekday readers might have overlooked a nugget posted on last weekend’s Agitator, Tom again calls attention to a marvelous rant by fundraiser Bob Levy.

Bob’s advice on copy is especially poignant given the potentially overpowering financial trauma for many donors. As Tom notes, "No matter how ‘well-off’ you think your donors might be (or at least the best ones), when they get your next letter, have no doubt, they will be hurtin’ psychologically."

Bob’s advice might help, now more than ever. He says things like communicate "intelligently" … use "messages that genuinely uplift" … be "truth-telling."And then he urges us to convey "something of substance, placing an organization’s mission within a real-life, 21st century context … talking without hyperventilating or fear mongering."

If you didn’t read Bob’s piece last weekend or during the week here’s your third chance!

THURSDAY: Americans Surprisingly Confident. According to the latest survey conducted by Pew Research Center (just last weekend, Oct 9-12), Americans are confident about the economy and their own financial condition. Here is Pew’s core observation:

"… there is little indication that the nation’s financial crisis has triggered public panic or despair. Most Americans express confidence that the government still possesses the power to fix the economy, though that belief has lost adherents since July. There has been no decline in people’s perceptions of their own financial situations. Looking ahead to next year, Americans are more confident than they were in July about an improvement in the national economy and in their own personal finances. This is not to say that the public has been spared the effects of the financial crisis: Over the past three weeks, the percentages saying they plan to rein in spending in a number of areas have increased sharply."

Nonetheless consumers are tightening their belts. This chart shows you how they are doing that:

The Pew findings, while not surveying attitudes on contributions per se, are in line with a recent USA TODAY survey we reported in the Agitator on October 9 indicating that 77% of the respondents said they would continue making contributions at or above their current level in the year ahead.

FRIDAY: More On Public Perceptions and the Economy. As stock markets rocketed up and down, speculation about what all this means to year-end fundraising ran rampant. In an effort to bring more light than heat to the subject we reported for the third time this week on the public’s perceptions of the economy and their personal situation.

In another poll , this one from Discover Financial, the findings point to what seems to be a consistent trend that may be of interest to fundraisers: people seem to be much more pessimistic about the broad economic outlook than they are about their own personal finances. And so their response as consumers is to remain relatively optimistic, but to temper that optimism with more cautious personal spending.

The Agitator’s take on all this? Don’t despair. It doesn’t appear to us that donors will be locking their wallets in a vault. They will certainly be more restrained, and your appeal will need to be genuinely compelling.

"Same old, same old" will not work. Fundraising messages should be presented in today’s context, explaining how your need is important and timely enough to deserve the donors’ support even while they are tightening their belts. You might even want to explain how your nonprofit is indeed tightening its belt and saving money here and there … yet pressing needs remain … and you’ll stretch their dollars further.

Most importantly, don’t stop asking!

Your Weekend Bonus: In these times it’s so easy to fall victim to the myopia that comes from the hourly/daily bulletins of market crashes, financial panic and impending recession. For some much needed perspective check out "Resilient Philanthropy" a first rate article in the current edition of AFP’s "Advancing Philanthropy".

The author, Bradford Wm. Voigt, Director of Institutional Advancement for the Harvard University Art Museums, takes on the "Chicken Little" in all of us with a review of what really happened to giving following market crashes, recessions and other crises in the past 27 years.

This piece, even though written before the October 2008 round of crises, suggests that even a worst case scenario may not be as long-lasting nor as dramatic as many fear. Mr. Voigt notes, "While it is clear that the stock market provides donors with a greater ease and sense of confidence in making gifts to nonprofit organizations, the oppositie is not true. Down markets do not always foretell decreased philanthropy."

Have a great weekend.

Roger

In Christopher Columbus’ day navigators wondered whether they’d fall off the edge of the earth or be swallowed alive by sea monsters. This week, in the words of Yogi Berra, it was déjà vu all over again. As we waited for the global financial rescue plans to take hold and as stock markets continued to plunge, fundraisers found themselves in a strange new sea for which there are no charts, only monsters. Here at The Agitator we decided to leave the hand-wringing to others and proceed on the assumption that the fundraising life, no matter how much more difficult it may have become, will indeed go on.

WEEK OF OCTOBER 6, 2008

MONDAY: Someone we know has been nominated for President .

No one knows for sure what makes for great viral marketing. In all probability the message and technique not only have to shock or surprise, they have to glide along on top of the current wave and capture the moment just like any great surfboard champion. Roger found his mailbox filling up with a viral piece sent by friends and family. Subject line: "Taking Matters Into Our Own Hands." Followed by a short and simple message: "Check this out, new movement to elect a different kind of president." Here’s the link to that mighty effective viral piece that captures the moment during these closing weeks of the presidential election campaign. Have some weekend fun and click on the link.

TUESDAY: Younger Prospects for Planned Giving

Describes a Stelter Company report arguing that fundraisers should be targeting a younger age segment than is traditionally the case for planned giving.

As reported in Fundraising Success, Stelter et al have conducted a study indicating that 41% of adults prepare a will by the time they reach age 40, and that the percentage bumps up to a whopping 84% for those age 40 and younger with average annual incomes over $100,000. Our own DonorTrends 2008 survey yields a somewhat more conservative picture. We found that 21% of active post-Boomer donors (those born after 1964, making the oldest age 44) have a will, and that slightly over a third of these have already included a charitable gift. Tom asks, "How low do you go" age-wise in introducing planned giving options to your current donors?

WEDNESDAY: Where Do Voters Go After the Debates?

To YouTube of course, to see who won! Check out this fascinating piece from AdAge of campaign use of online video by Obama and McCain. In September, Obama’s online videos received 12.9 million views, compared to 5.8 million for McCain. In our DonorTrends 2008 survey, 34% of donors report watching charity or cause-related online videos, with higher percentages among post-Boomers (born after 1964), the more educated, and those who give more. We hope you’re tapping or making plans to tap this medium.

THURSDAY: USA Today Covers Charitable Giving.

By the time the Dow broke through 9,000 and was headed further down we decided we’d better give out some raises. The first of this week’s two “You Deserve a Raise” awards went to USA Today online for its interesting series of articles on charitable giving and fundraising. Some are profiles and data based on the paper’s original reportage and research provided by Boston College’s Center on Wealth and Philanthropy. In addition the results of a survey on giving conducted in September (after the financial meltdown was in full melt) by USA Today and Gallup are also reported. The good news is that, according to this survey, fully 77% say they intend to give the same amount or more to charity in the coming year.

FRIDAY: Converting Online “Supporters” Into Donors.

A fine case study complete with hard data and concrete advice on the intensive use of email to convert newly signed “supporters” into donors. In this case, Fundraising Success reports (and before them, NTEN) the online cultivation and conversion program designed by Common Knowledge with their client International Fund for Animal Welfare. Bottomline: 83% increase in conversion to donors for newly acquired supporters of the International Fund for Animal Welfare. The premise underlying the strategy, based on plenty of evidence from online retailers, is that you must interact early and often to capitalize on that initial — perhaps fragile — expression of interest if you wish to build a bond with the "customer" and make a sale. The tactics and results are detailed here. As the Standard & Poors Index capped its worst day since 1933 we decided to fork over another raise.

So, we ended the week giving Common Knowledge and their IFAW client our second and indeed warranted “You Deserve a Raise” award of the week.

Your Weekend Bonus.

In addition to covering the "financial crisis" and what to do about it, we’ve spent a lot of time the last few weeks on innovation, new media and some of the metrics that affect our trade. So, as the presidential candidates’ speeches and tv spots fill the airwaves in the countdown to November, and as the breathless news readers on the networks make sure we understand there really is a financial crisis, it’s time to remember that one of the basic ingredients of our trade— words – really do matter.

And they especially matter in times like these. When we posted The Agitator’s 7 Tips for Surviving 2008 some of our advice involved engaging your best donors and reminding them why your mission is so important. Succeeding at that involves words and powerful descriptions of mission and needs and the relevance of your donor’s involvement at this critical time.

Yet, more and more, there seems to be an increasing reliance on what I call ‘spreadsheet magic’ — modeling, analytics, benchmarking, etc., etc. Maybe I’m jealous that the data folks are in the ascendancy while we copywriters seem to have gone the way of the old-fashioned typewriter. (Of course, I’d like to attribute the trend to the fact that 50% of nonprofit execs can read, and of that 50%, 100% think they know good writing. But, I won’t go there. Promise.)

Mercifully, yesterday’s mailbox yielded a magnificent yelp of protest from Bob Levy, a former colleague, a great fundraiser and a terrific copywriter. In a beautiful (at least to a copywriter’s ears) rant he reminds us all of the dangers of letting good creative be relegated to second or third place in favor of the “data diddlers” as he calls them.

In his essay/rant titled “Words Count” Bob reminds us that “in the current electoral cycle people have expressed a deep longing for truth telling," and then admonishes us all for falling back on hackneyed formulaic copy of the ‘70s and ’80s.

Or as Bob puts it, “something is different out there…[donors] don’t always give us what we want when we put ‘please,’ ‘urgent’ and ‘need’ in the same sentence."

So, take a moment right now and read Bob’s rant. You’ll want to hug your copywriter on Monday morning.

Have a great weekend.

Roger

P.S. And don’t even think about looking at your 401(k).

1. The pace of online giving has significantly increased – an estimated 31% in the past two years alone. In 24 months giving has moved from the hundreds of millions to well above a billion, no matter what source is doing the estimating.
2. Donors giving more than $100 per year are disproportionately online donors, and this propensity increases sharply as giving amounts increase. 82% of those giving more than $1000 a year to charities, causes or campaign give online.
3. In our current study we found intriguing racial and ethnic signals about online giving. For example 59% of Hispanic respondents are online donors; 92% of African-American respondents contributed online, topped by 92% of Asian-American respondents. NOTE: We will conduct additional inquires on racial and ethnic trends to confirm these findings. But if these early signals are correct the future of online giving is bright indeed because these groups will soon represent the majority of Americans.
4. The sharp growth in online giving has occurred across all age groups and non-profit categories. Despite a tendency of some to write Seniors out of the online fundraising equation the most impressive growth has occurred among older donors.
5. We found that the existence of a thriving interpersonal online fundraising network is hugely important for the future. With nearly 60% of donors born after 1964, with 25% of donors born between 1946 and 1964, and at least 25% of those born before 1946 visiting such sites, the platform is taking shape for a far more online distributed form of grassroots fundraising — the coming Web 3.0 of fundraising.

True, Postage and Telephone still dominate, but The Mouse is gaining.Have a great weekend.Roger

The Agitator’s Week In Review.  This was a week for politics, beginning with the Washington, D.C. soap opera over the on-again-off-again bailout of the  U.S. financial system and ending with the on-again Presidential Debates in Oxford, Mississippi.

Regardless of where you stand on the bailout you have to feel a sense of pride last night at how far the U.S. has come in the realm of social change when one of the two men on stage at Ole Miss was the nation’s first black nominee.

WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22^nd

MONDAY –Tom kicked off the political week with a summary of a recent survey by the Pew Hispanic Center indicating Hispanics are becoming more pessimistic about the outlook for Latinos in America, with some of this discontent rubbing off on the Republicans.

50% of Hispanic adults say the situation for Hispanics in this country has worsened in the past year, compared to 33% with that view a year ago.

TUESDAY—Another Pew study.  This recent survey by the Pew Research Center has found that of the 44% of the public that goes online regularly at work, 70% check the news through the day.

But what news are they following?

Observes Pew:

"The quest for news at work might come as a surprise in the face of findings about the public’s news knowledge. The same Pew Research survey asked Americans to name which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives (the Democratic Party), to identify the U.S. secretary of state (Condoleezza Rice) and name the prime minister of Great Britain (Gordon Brown). Only 18% of the public is able to correctly answer all three political knowledge questions, while a third (33%) could not answer any."

So much for issue politics!

And we wonder why it’s so hard to raise money for issue advocacy groups! In our latest DonorTrends 08 survey, only one in five respondents say they have given to an issue advocacy group.

WEDNESDAY—We continued down the polling path with  another fascinating report from Pew Research Center indicating the bias of cell phone-only respondents to political polls.

Pew has conducted three surveys on presidential candidate preferences since the primaries ended. In each case, they isolated the responses of individuals who reported using cell phones only.

Amongst these respondents, Obama holds a significant advantage (10-15 percentage points), whereas among respondents who use landlines, or landlines and cellphones, Obama and McCain are running a dead heat.

But politics aside, if your nonprofit does survey research by phone (we at The Agitator, via DonorTrends, do all our research online), you need to consider the Pew findings carefully from a methodological standpoint. Particularly if you’re trying to probe the post-Boomer generations, the choice of contact medium appears now to make a significant difference. Cell-only users are a unique tribe. You’ll need to get to know them.

THURSDAY — It used to be that "good government" advocates like the League of Women Voters and high school civics teachers were thrilled if anyone merely watched political debates!

With the advent of the web’s online engagement, viewing and social networking options, however, the "good citizen" bar has been raised substantially.  Now you can vote instantly on the winner, register to host official viewing parties, and of course watch the debate online while you multi-task.

Here’s what the Obama and McCain campaigns wanted their supporters to do around the first debate. For Obama   For McCain

And, as we noted, your nonprofit’s CEO isn’t likely to have access to prime time TV on a scheduled basis anytime soon, but were he or she to do a webcast to the faithful, these campaign tools would apply.

FRIDAY— We wrapped up our political week with a visit to the folks over on Convio’s blog, Connection Cafe, where their staff has been comparing the websites of Obama and McCain on key attributes like accessibility, ease and clarity of navigation, and — of most interest to me — engagement features and pathways.

These sites, as they push the engagement envelope and perhaps overload on bells & whistles, are offering more involvement than we’d ever care to have with a campaign! But that’s a key point … offer different strokes for different folks. Just make it very easy for your supporter to find their own level of engagement.

By the way, the analyses offered at Convio Connection are terrific.

Your Weekend Bonus.  There’s just never enough time to see first hand what’s good, what’s bad and what’s just plain mediocre in the fast-changing world of new media.  Some of the most innovative and effective developments occur in world of political campaigning.

So, we recommend you spend some time reviewing the insights of the folks at  TechPresident, who do a brilliant job of reporting and critiquing from numerous perspectives the online strategies and tactics of the presidential campaigns.

In recent months  and for good reason they’ve been gushing about the scope and creativity of presidential campaign efforts to engage and empower supporters via the web.

TechPresident is a project of the Personal Democracy Forum.  So, if it’s a rainy weekend in your part of the woods as it is in mine it’s well worth a tour.  Chances are you’ll discover at least 7 techniques you can put to work for your cause tomorrow. 

Enjoy your weekend,

Roger       

1. Connect with your donor’s pain.
2. Call mid to major donors now.
3. Begin year-end campaigns in September with installment options.
4. Use alternative giving vehicles
5. Focus on segmentation and target total net income (not return on investment or revenues.

Randy, you deserve a raise.Have a great weekend.    Roger